MAGA base sticks with Trump as activists and influencers get antsy

Elon Musk’s opposition to the bill appears to have moved zero votes. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) did not oppose it primarily on the billionaire’s fiscal grounds. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) did, but almost certainly would have voted no regardless of Musk’s position.

It was true again when Trump struck Iranian nuclear sites, which many of his supporters worried would draw the United States into a wider war that would violate his “America First” campaign promises and possibly upend his presidency.

Instead, U.S. involvement ended quickly, the Israel-Iran ceasefire has so far held, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Each time the pro-Trump influencers tested their influence, the base stayed with Trump.

That devotion is going to continue to be tested, however.

Trump has signaled he will relax immigration enforcement for the benefit of certain industries, such as agriculture. 

“We’re working on legislation right now where farmers, look, they know better,” Trump said in Iowa on July 3. “They work with them for years. You had cases that where, not here, but just even over the years where people have worked for a farm for 14, 15 years, and they get thrown out pretty viciously. And we can’t do it.”

“Now, serious radical right people, who I also happen to like a lot, they may not be quite as happy, but they’ll understand, won’t they?” he continued. “Do you think so?”

Trump credited Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins with being “the one that brought this whole situation up.” Rollins is a major player in Trumpworld but has never been particularly trusted by immigration restrictionists.

This was followed by rumors, amplified by pro-Trump voices like Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk, that Trump is open to a broader amnesty deal. In his first term, he considered trading the wall for codifying Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, an Obama-era program that, among other things, shielded from deportation some illegal immigrants who arrived in the country as minors. 

In his second term, Trump has made substantial progress curtailing illegal entries after former President Joe Biden’s border crisis. The “big, beautiful bill” also enacted significant funding for immigration enforcement without any amnesty attached. Immigration hawks such as border czar Tom Homan and White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller appear to be at the zenith of their influence. But the total deportation numbers have been below expectations, and polling on the question has been mixed.

Does Trump have the credibility on this issue to moderate? Will it head off what some, though not all, polls suggest might be a softening of support for Trump’s enforcement agenda? Or will this keep Trump from fulfilling his promise to shift wages currently being paid to illegal immigrants back to American workers?

The Trump administration, if not the president himself, took hits all day Monday on Jeffrey Epstein. Trump had promised to release the Epstein files after returning to office. Attorney General Pam Bondi and other officials hinted they were close to doing so, handing out putative Epstein binders to conservative influencers in late February. The Justice Department now says the Epstein files do not really exist.

This did not go over well with those involved, though it remains to be seen how politically salient this is outside very online circles.

Also on Monday, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine.

“We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now,” he told reporters.

Trump has unsuccessfully tried to end Russia’s war with Ukraine since returning to power. The administration just last week paused sending some munitions and air defense systems to Ukraine to avoid depleting U.S. stockpiles, amid fierce criticism. But without a diplomatic breakthrough, there hasn’t been a clean break from Biden’s Ukraine policy, either.

The Ukraine decision could anger the same parts of Trump’s coalition that were upset by the Iran strikes. It will fuel criticism that when push comes to shove, Trump hasn’t been different enough from past Republicans on immigration or foreign policy.

BEHIND THE SCENES OF TRUMP’S FULL-COURT PRESS BEFORE FINAL ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL’ VOTE 

All this comes as Musk threatens to turn his frustrations with Trump into a full-blown third political party ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

But so far, nobody has been able to speak for Trump’s political movement with more authority than he does.