We explain President Trump and Putin’s changing relationship.
President Trump and Vladimir Putin’s relationship has curdled. It’s a strange turn, given how good things looked for Russia after Trump’s election. The new president seemed to regard Putin respectfully, and Putin seemed poised to get much of what he wanted in his war against Ukraine. Instead, Putin badly misplayed his cards. In today’s newsletter, I explain how he turned a potential White House ally into a skeptic.
Trump promised during the campaign to quickly end the war in Ukraine. When he took office, his administration was skeptical about Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, ready to let Russia control the Ukrainian territory it had taken, disinclined to spend a lot on Kyiv’s defense and even open to recognizing Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. It was a peace offering that achieved many of Russia’s war aims.
Then came Volodymyr Zelensky’s disastrous Oval Office visit in February. Trump belittled Zelensky as an ingrate on live TV, insisting, “You don’t have the cards right now.” He also said Putin had been the victim of an American witch hunt. The U.S. began pressing Ukraine to sign an agreement handing over much of its mineral wealth.
All of this came at the perfect time for Russia. It had lost about a quarter-million soldiers in the war. Its economy was weak. But with a sympathetic American president, Putin was in reach of claiming victory.
But Putin was not ready to settle. Just as he did when he invaded Ukraine in 2022, he believed he could get everything he wanted. In his hubris, he repeatedly rebuffed Trump’s push for a cease-fire. He continued to pound Ukraine with horrific drone attacks.
