White House roadmap says Europe may be ‘unrecognizable’ in 20 years as migration raises doubts about US allies

The White House warns in a stark new National Security Strategy that Europe could be “unrecognizable in 20 years or less” due to mass migration, adding that the demographic shift raises doubts about future U.S. allies on the continent.

“Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” the 33-page document released on Thursday reads. 

It adds that the “real and more stark prospect” is of “civilizational erasure.”

Mass immigration has been one of Europe’s most volatile political flashpoints over the past decade, fueled by repeated waves of immigrants from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

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A small boat heads off into the English Channel after picking up migrants at sunrise on July 2, 2025, in Gravelines, France. (Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)

“As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies,” the document says. “Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.”

The national security plan cites migration policies that are “transforming the continent and creating strife,” along with “cratering birthrates” and the erosion of national identity. 

The White House warns the demographic shift could have major implications for NATO and European security, noting that several member states may become “majority non-European.” That scenario, the document argues, could weaken Europe’s ability to deter adversaries and complicate U.S. efforts to maintain transatlantic stability.

“Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” the document says. “As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.”

President Donald Trump sits at the Resolute desk in the Oval Office. Trump has been a constant critic of Europe’s immigration polices. (Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The document says Europe’s economic decline is well under way, losing a 25% share of global GDP in 1990 to 14% today — “partly owing to national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness.”

But it says that economic decline is eclipsed by the broader warning of “civilizational erasure.” It lists migration policies, censorship, political suppression, cratering birthrates and the loss of national identity as the forces driving that trajectory.

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President Donald Trump echoed similar warnings during a visit to the United Kingdom last year, saying mass immigration would “destroy Europe” and that the continent was “not going to survive” unless governments dramatically changed course.

The White House defended the warning, saying Europe is already suffering the consequences of mass immigration.

“The devastating impacts of unchecked migration and those migrants’ inability to assimilate are not just a concern for President Trump but for Europeans themselves, who have increasingly noted immigration as one of their top concerns,” White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said in a statement to Fox News Digital. “These open border policies have led to widespread examples of violence, spikes in crime, and more, with detrimental impacts on the fiscal sustainability of social safety net programs.”

Kelly said Trump’s border policies “saved America from such destruction,” adding that “other countries would be wise to follow suit.”

The White House pointed to a range of European data to support the administration’s concerns, citing studies showing asylum migration costing the Netherlands €475,000 per migrant, illegal immigration costing France €1.8 billion in 2023 and non-Western migrants committing disproportionate shares of violent crime in Denmark and Germany. The White House also referenced a series of fatal terror attacks across the continent carried out by migrants. 

The 33-page blueprint has no named author but features a foreword by Trump, who calls the document a “roadmap to ensure America remains the greatest and most successful nation in human history.”

The document forms part of a sweeping set of national security goals in which the president vows to enforce the Monroe Doctrine while adding his own corollary aimed at expanding U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere and countering adversaries’ growing footprint.

The Trump administration asserts that a “reasonably stable” Western Hemisphere where governments work together to fight malign foreign influence is key to U.S. national security. To achieve this, the administration vows in the document to “assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine.”

Former President James Monroe issued the doctrine in his seventh annual address to Congress on Dec. 2, 1823, warning European powers against interfering in the Western Hemisphere through political influence or colonization. The U.S. Office of the Historian, part of the State Department, notes that although European nations initially paid little attention to Monroe’s declaration, it eventually became “a longstanding tenet of U.S. foreign policy.”

Migrants aboard a fishing boat arrive at the port of Catania in Italy in 2023.  (Fabrizio Villa/Getty Images)

“After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region,” the document reads.

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“This ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine is a common-sense and potent restoration of American power and priorities, consistent with American security interests.”

Fox News’ Rachel Wolf contributed to this report.