Most crimes go unsolved, emboldening criminals and potentially leading to more violence.
Someone murdered Raymel Atkins in Louisville, Ky., in 2023. More than a year later, his mother and sister don’t know who did it; the police have not made an arrest in the case. The same is true for Tiffanie Floyd, killed in 2021. And Michael David, killed in 2017. And Cory Crowe, killed in 2014.
In fact, the Louisville police do not arrest anyone in roughly half of murder cases. I spoke to family members of a dozen victims. They all conveyed a similar sentiment: that the police had abandoned them and theirs. “The police don’t really care,” said Deondra Kimble, David’s aunt. “They’ve proven it to me.”
Louisville’s police department acknowledges serious problems; it says it is about 300 officers below full staffing. The department is trying to address those issues, said Jennifer Keeney, a spokeswoman. She shared a message for the family members of murder victims: “We understand they are grieving, frustrated and in pain. We want them to know it’s frustrating for us, too, and that we do care.”
Louisville is representative of a national issue. In the United States, people often get away with murder. The clearance rate — the share of cases that result in an arrest or are otherwise solved — was 58 percent in 2023, the latest year for which F.B.I. data is available. And that figure is inflated because it includes murders from previous years that police solved in 2023.
In other words, a murderer’s chance of getting caught within a year essentially comes down to a coin flip. For other crimes, clearance rates are even lower. Only 8 percent of car thefts result in an arrest.
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58% cases cleared
Murder
Assault
46
28
Robbery
Rape
27
Vehicle
theft
8
58% cases cleared
Murder
Assault
46
Robbery
28
Rape
27
Vehicle
theft
8
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United
States
4.4 per 100,000 people
Canada
0.7
Sweden
0.5
Spain
0.1
Australia
0.1
United States
4.4 per 100,000 people
Canada
0.7
Sweden
0.5
Spain
0.1
Australia
0.1