Putin Doesn’t Actually Want Peace

There is, at last, a breakthrough in efforts to end the war in Ukraine.

After weeks of tortuous recriminations and reprisals, encapsulated by that notorious scene in the Oval Office, the United States and Ukraine last week agreed on a 30-day cease-fire. Military assistance and intelligence sharing, once paused, have resumed. Since President Trump took office, the saga of the war has played out almost entirely between America and Ukraine, with Russia somewhere in the background. Now all eyes are on Moscow.

People hoping for peace are likely to be disappointed. Despite President Vladimir Putin of Russia signaling readiness for a deal, nothing could be further from the truth. I’ve been talking to Kremlin insiders who have known Mr. Putin for years and they all agreed: Mr. Putin has come to love war and can no longer imagine a future without it. Instead, his plan is to drive a wedge between Ukraine and the United States, take advantage of Mr. Trump’s apparent friendliness to improve relations with America and keep the war machine running.

Tuesday’s phone call between the two leaders will put that strategy to the test. Whatever happens next, nobody should be fooled. Mr. Putin has no desire to end the war.

The mood in Moscow is war weary. That’s why Mr. Trump’s comments about forcing Ukraine to negotiate were seized upon by Russian officials with such excitement: It offered them a way out of the war, complete with new American friendship. But Mr. Putin sees things differently. According to the people I spoke to, he hasn’t given up on his original aim: to take Kyiv and overthrow President Volodymyr Zelensky. The volatility of American support for Ukraine — along with small but steady advances on the battlefield and Russia’s general advantage in resources — makes this pipe dream seem more plausible, if still far-fetched.

More important, though, is that the war has become Mr. Putin’s ultimate tool for controlling the country and ensuring no one steps out of line. It has been brutally wielded to drive out dissenting voices from the country, turning a whole generation of opponents into exiles. The war serves as a perfect gag order on those in the system, too. As long as it continues, even the so-called systemic liberals — the pro-Western faction within Russia’s government that holds key positions in the economy and business world — will remain silent. Many of them are clearly unhappy. But while the war drags on, they will not speak out.

The dangers of peace, on the other hand, are plain. It would return a more than a million-strong army home and a rung of high-ranking veterans to civilian life. What will they do? A warning signal was sent last month when one of Russia’s most prominent war veterans and the president’s envoy to the Urals district, Artem Zhoga, dared to criticize a possible minerals deal with America floated by Mr. Putin. “These resources are part of a strategic reserve, and I urge my colleagues in the regions to ensure their preservation in the interests of the state,” Mr. Zhoga said. Notably, he did not mention the president.