Russia’s gas gamble backfires as Trump’s energy vision reshapes Europe

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would leave them “hostage to Moscow,” the remark was met with skepticism — and even laughter.

Three years into his second term, those same leaders are now scrambling to secure long-term contracts for U.S. liquefied natural gas as Russia’s once-dominant grip on Europe’s energy market unravels exactly as Trump predicted.

Russia’s decision to choke off gas deliveries in 2022 — an attempt to fracture Western unity and pressure Europe into abandoning Ukraine — has had the opposite effect. Its share of European Union gas imports has fallen from 45% in 2021 to under 10% today. U.S. gas now accounts for nearly 57% of Europe’s total imports, compared to roughly one-third before the war.

The cutoff accelerated a historic realignment in global energy, with U.S. LNG producers rushing to fill the void. The shift has not only blunted one of Vladimir Putin’s most powerful geopolitical weapons but also fueled an American export boom that is binding Europe more tightly to Washington than at any point since the Cold War.

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New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece, and Croatia are channeling U.S. and Qatari gas deep into the continent.  (Filip Klimaszewski/Reuters)

The transformation is most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, where countries once reliant on Russian pipelines are turning west. New corridors linking LNG terminals in Poland, Greece and Croatia are channeling U.S. and Qatari gas deep into the continent. Nations such as Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia — long vulnerable to supply cutoffs — are forging contracts that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

“Central and Eastern Europe have been the most vulnerable because these were the countries that had been historically almost 100% dependent on Russian gas,” said Aura Sabadus, a senior energy analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “Now we see companies in those markets securing U.S. LNG through new routes, particularly via Poland and southern corridors through Greece.”

In Athens last week, executives from major U.S. producers met with regional buyers from Greece, Poland and Ukraine to finalize new supply deals — the clearest sign yet that Europe’s energy axis has shifted. American gas now flows through the same infrastructure that once carried Russian fuel, and the geopolitical balance has flipped with it.

For the Kremlin, the toll is mounting. Energy exports once funded a third of Russia’s budget, but the loss of its most lucrative market has forced Moscow to sell oil and gas to China and India at steep discounts. Analysts say the country’s energy sector — once the backbone of its geopolitical power — has become a liability, exposing its dependence on fewer, less profitable buyers.

The U.S. has significantly ramped up LNG exports to Europe.  (Anton Zubchevskyi/stock/Getty)

Greece has emerged as a key gateway for U.S. gas. On November 7, Athens signed its first long-term deal with American exporter Venture Global to import at least 700 million cubic meters annually beginning in 2030. The 20-year agreement, led by DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, could expand to 2 billion cubic meters per year and allow Greece to re-export gas north through the Balkans toward Ukraine.

Poland is also positioning itself as a regional hub. Warsaw is negotiating to bring in additional U.S. LNG volumes — estimated at up to 5 billion cubic meters annually — for resale to Ukraine and Slovakia. Poland’s energy group ORLEN recently signed a contract with Ukraine’s Naftogaz to deliver 140 million cubic meters of American gas through terminals in Świnoujście and Lithuania’s Klaipėda.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is increasingly reliant on those routes to offset Russian losses and prepare for winter.

Sabadus said Europe’s pivot will likely accelerate as the EU debates a full ban on Russian pipeline gas and LNG by 2028. “If that law is adopted and enforced — and if long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers are secured — this won’t just be a temporary shift,” she said. “It will be a structural realignment.”

At the time of Trump’s first warnings, many European leaders dismissed them. German officials defended the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, insisting that trade would keep Russia tied to the West. Now, those same governments are racing to secure American supply as U.S. LNG terminals along the Gulf Coast operate at record capacity.

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As the U.S. cements its role as Europe’s primary gas supplier, Russia’s grip on the continent’s energy market continues to weaken. “Russia used to offer big discounts to keep buyers hooked, but as global production surges, it will have limited flexibility to compete,” Sabadus said. “U.S. LNG will become very competitive in Europe.”

When Donald Trump warned European leaders years ago that their dependence on Russian gas would leave them “hostage to Moscow,” the remark was met with skepticism — and even laughter. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The Trump administration has moved quickly to capitalize on the shift. It lifted a pause on LNG export approvals earlier this year, approved new production projects in Louisiana and Texas, and pushed for a U.S.–E.U. energy framework under which European buyers have pledged to purchase hundreds of billions of dollars in American energy over the coming decades. Officials point to a string of recent long-term contracts — including Venture Global’s deals with Italy and Germany over the summer, Greece’s agreement announced last week, and a newly signed contract between Spain’s Naturgy and Venture Global — as evidence that the “energy dominance” agenda is reshaping global trade flows.

Rob Jennings, vice president for natural gas markets at the American Petroleum Institute, said the policy shift has unleashed a wave of investment and confirmed strong demand for U.S. LNG.

“Five facilities have made their final investment decisions in the first nine months of this year, totaling about 50 million metric tons per year of new capacity — more than $50 billion in investment,” he told Fox News Digital. “It’s a really strong signal from the market.”

Jennings said the growth in exports benefits both sides of the Atlantic.

“Since 2016, the cumulative GDP impact of the U.S. LNG industry is about $400 billion, and over the next 15 years it could add another $1.3 trillion,” he said. “At the same time, more than two-thirds of U.S. LNG exports now go to Europe every single day, replacing the gas they once bought from Russia.”

Still, industry officials warn that regulatory differences could complicate future trade. Jennings pointed to two new European policies — the E.U. methane regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive — that U.S. producers say could impose foreign standards on American companies.

“Those rules are effectively Europe trying to impose its own standards globally,” he said. “We hope that can be addressed as part of the trade deal, because there’s a risk they could undermine Europe’s commitment to buy more U.S. energy.”

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Europe’s realignment is far from complete. Regulatory mismatches, high transmission tariffs, and local politics still complicate integration across Central and Eastern Europe. But for now, the combination of abundant U.S. supply and new demand from coal-to-gas transitions has created what Sabadus called “a good alignment.”

“We’re entering a buyer’s market now,” she said. “There’s abundant U.S. LNG supply, and new pockets of demand are emerging in Eastern Europe as countries move from coal to gas.”