Moscow thinks it’s winning in Ukraine and can play hardball diplomatically. Washington sees costly, incremental gains and an unrealistic negotiating position.
As the world waits to to see if he shows up in Turkey for cease-fire negotiations this week, President Vladimir V. Putin has been sending a clear message, reinforced by his officials. Russia is winning on the battlefield, so it should get what it wants.
Mr. Putin said in late March that Russian forces had the advantage on the entire front and suggested Moscow was close to vanquishing the Ukrainians — an argument the Kremlin has used to underpin hardball demands. “We have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off,” Mr. Putin said, adding: “People in Ukraine need to realize what is going on.”
Andrei V. Kartapolov, head of the defense committee in the lower chamber of Russian Parliament, reiterated that message on Tuesday, saying Ukraine needed to recognize the Russian military was advancing in 116 directions. If the Ukrainians did not want to talk, he added, they must listen to “the language of the Russian bayonet.”
The hardball approach has been accompanied by gamesmanship over peace negotiations. It is unclear whether Mr. Putin will attend the talks he initially proposed for midlevel delegations on Thursday in Turkey. Mr. Zelensky upped the ante, saying he would attend and expected to see Mr. Putin, knowing Mr. Putin is loath to meet him. President Trump said he might go if the Russian president went.
And Mr. Putin has left everyone in limbo.
The Russian position has posed a challenge for the Trump administration, which has found Russian officials making extreme demands that the battlefield situation does not appear to justify. While Russian forces have seized the advantage and taken territory of late, they are a far cry from defeating the Ukrainians and have advanced at a very high cost.
