President Trump has claimed a “spectacular military success” in destroying three sites in Iran; we’ll see if that’s true. What is clear is that he has pushed America into a war with Iran that he acknowledges may escalate.
Beyond doubts about the legal basis for bombing Iran, I see risks for America and the world ahead revolving around three fundamental unknowns.
The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the United States. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, “The harm the U.S. will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.”
Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyberattacks, strike American embassies or support terrorist attacks.
Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, fully or partly, by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Experts have told me that they believe the United States could, over time, reopen the strait, but there might be economic and other costs. When Iran mined the strait in 1988, a mine crippled a U.S. Navy frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts.
When the United States assassinated Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general, in 2020, Iran launched a missile barrage at American bases in Iraq. A Ukrainian passenger jet was hit by accident, killing all 176 people aboard.
