The stunning collapse of the brutal Assad regime in Syria, a family business since the 1970s, is a geopolitical earthquake creating winners and losers around the world. First, the losers:
Iran is a big loser; Syria has been a close ally and a vital overland transport link to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Iran supported Syria as President Bashar al-Assad fought to remain in power during the country’s horrifying civil war, and it used Syria to project power around the region. Iran has already been badly weakened in recent months, and this adds to the sense that Iran’s regime is possibly vulnerable and certainly a lesser power.
One question is whether all this adds to the arguments within Iran’s leadership to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent.
Russia likewise loses an important ally and it will presumably also lose its valuable military bases in Syria. In 2015, Moscow intervened militarily to back the Assad regime in the civil war, dropping bombs on civilian targets and adding to its unpopularity among citizens.
Russia particularly values its naval base at Tartus, which allows it to support warships in the Mediterranean Sea.
Hezbollah backed Assad in the Syrian civil war, and it depended on weapons shipped from Iran through Syria to Lebanon. The Assad regime for decades interfered violently in Lebanese politics. That said, Hezbollah remains a significant force in Lebanon, even if weakened.
The Alawite sect in Syria, an offshoot of Shiite Islam amounting to perhaps 10 percent or more of Syrians, will now be at risk. The Assads were Alawites, and Alawites were resented for the privileges they enjoyed. I would be terrified if I were an Alawite in Syria today.
I worry that Syrian Christians, who had to some degree been protected by the Assads, may also be targeted and harassed, and that women will lose rights. The triumphant forces aren’t the Taliban, but they are a step in that direction. That said, the civil war in Syria hurt everyone, including women and Christians.
So who are the winners as Syria changes hands?
