President Donald Trump‘s gamble that rising oil prices are good for the American economy may not be an effective messaging strategy with voters in a midterm year where affordability will be a key issue.
As gas prices have risen to more than $3 per gallon, Trump took to social media to claim, “When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money.”
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), a key White House ally on Capitol Hill, bluntly told CNN Americans “can live with” higher gas prices as Trump attempts to block Iran from nuclear powers.
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“President Trump is committed to achieving that goal, and if that means prices go up for a time, I think Americans understand, we can live with that,” he continued.
But for voters already struggling with the cost of living expenses, paying more at the pump because of the Iran war may not be something they’re willing to endure. They could also take out their anger on the GOP at the ballot box.
“It’s tough to ask Americans to endure more pain when this President was elected to stop it. The President’s success in lowering prices at the pump is somewhat of a double-edged sword,” a former administration official told the Washington Examiner.
“Many Americans are now used to cheaper gas and appreciate it, but they also don’t want to see prices rise again — even though prices remain lower than during much of the Biden administration,” the official continued. “Many Americans can stomach some price fluctuation, but asking them to endure pain for a war they didn’t even know existed is a stretch. This isn’t World War II, and going to the gas station isn’t buying a war bond.”
According to the AAA, the national average price of gas is $3.63, nearly two weeks after the joint U.S.-Israel operation against Iran began. Just two days before Operation Epic Fury began, the national average price of gas was $2.98. Oil prices have also risen to above $100 per barrel.
Trump has claimed the U.S. has won the Iran war, but he has also claimed that the war will end when Iran presents an “unconditional surrender.”
A prolonged war, along with rising gas prices, could put increased pressure on the Trump administration ahead of a tough midterm cycle.
“I think that that falls flat as a message to the American people, because ultimately they’re experiencing this oil price in a very personalized way,” said Cayce Myers, a professor at Virginia Tech’s School of Communication.
“Nothing really impacts affordability issues like the price of gas, because there’s not only just the price of the gasoline itself for consumption,” said Myers. “But also this sort of trickle-down effect that it has within goods, and so other prices may rise as a result of gas prices.”
Trump has restarted his affordability tour across the nation, but rising gas prices undercut his messaging as the weather is beginning to warm up, and the public looks to travel for vacations.
One GOP strategist compared Trump’s new messaging strategy to his predecessor’s unsuccessful attempts to reassure the American public over the economy.
“It’s Bidenesque in its delusion. Americans aren’t stupid,” said the strategist, who asked for anonymity to speak candidly. “They know that higher gas prices affect everything.”
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Former President Joe Biden’s administration repeatedly tried to counter that the economy was rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic despite attacks from then-candidate Trump that the average family was still struggling.
Trump is risking falling into the Biden trap by asking Americans to endure higher prices for a war in the Middle East.
But another GOP strategist, Gregg Keller, said that “any chance that President Trump gets to remind folks that under him, gas prices have been in the neighborhood of $3 a gallon, while under President Biden, they were under $5 a gallon, is a great opportunity.”
“Gas prices are always going to go up and down; that’s the nature of dynamic pricing environments,” Keller also added.
The White House has also taken an aggressive stance in defending the war, both online and in the media.
“The Administration’s focus is on achieving the clearly defined objectives outlined by President Trump for Operation Epic Fury. President Trump has been clear that these are short-term disruptions,” said Taylor Rogers, White House spokeswoman. “Ultimately, once the military objectives are completed and the Iranian terrorist regime is neutralized, oil and gas prices will drop rapidly again, potentially even lower than before the strikes began. As a result, American families will benefit greatly in the long-term.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed during a briefing this week that the president had anticipated disruption to the global markets.
“That’s why President Trump and his energy team have been planning for this long before the strike and have moved quickly to address these temporary disruptions,” Leavitt told reporters. “Thus far, the Trump administration has offered political risk insurance to tankers operating in the Gulf, the Treasury temporarily waived certain oil-related sanctions, and the commander in chief has offered the U.S. Navy to escort tankers when necessary.”
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Ultimately, Trump will have the final say in how long the administration and allies continue to convince the public that higher prices are good. His administration has already promised to release the nation’s oil reserves to relieve pressure and has eased sanctions on Russian oil, to the consternation of European leaders.
“At the end of the day, Trump’s going to do what he thinks is right in that moment. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes not so good,” said the GOP strategist who asked for anonymity.
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