For a man who has been accused of being a political chameleon and someone who has changed his opinion on multiple topics, including President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance has been relentlessly on message.
Vance has spent the first year as the White House No. 2, acting as an attack dog for Trump while appealing to the president’s more populist base and burnishing his bona fides with younger conservative voters, particularly Turning Point USA, in the aftermath of the tragic death of co-founder Charlie Kirk.
He has also come across as significantly more effective in the office than his predecessor, Kamala Harris, who was perceived to flub big assignments repeatedly.
As a result, he has cemented his status as the early favorite to inherit the Make America Great Again movement when his boss inevitably walks away.
The only seeming risk for Vance is that he peaks too early as chatter crescendos about the next Republican presidential nominee. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has seen his popularity soar in recent weeks, even though he has said he would defer to Vance should he run.
Vance has made his mark on the vice presidency in part due to Trump delegating responsibilities to him, covering a range of high-profile issues, from last month’s deal with TikTok to last week’s negotiations regarding the purchase of Greenland.
“Franklin D. Roosevelt’s vice president, John Nance Garner, once said the Office of the Vice President ‘is not worth a bucket of spit,’ but since the late 1970s, it’s grown in power and importance,” Republican strategist Cesar Conda told the Washington Examiner.
Aside from topics such as immigration, crime, and artificial intelligence, Vance has become an “important voice for the America First foreign policy,” according to Conda.
That includes Vance introducing himself to world leaders at last year’s Munich Security Conference in Germany by saying there was a “new sheriff in town.”
The vice president punctuated his point weeks later during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s first meeting at the White House since Trump began his second term, when he implored Zelensky to “thank” the United States for supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia.
“Do you think that is respectful, to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” Vance asked Zelensky. “Have you said ‘thank you’ once?” For Vance, who has been accused of being terminally online by his detractors, it spawned a rash of memes, which he saw the funny side of.
At the same time, Vance has become a pivotal linchpin between Trump and Congress as a former U.S. senator from Ohio and now as president of the chamber, helping to confirm Trump’s more controversial nominees and pass his legislative agenda, including casting the tiebreaking vote for the tax and spending One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The vice president, too, has developed a reputation as a Trump whisperer, such as between the president and Tesla CEO Elon Musk after the dramatic break-up of their previously close working relationship, in addition to becoming a disciplined political messenger, evidenced this month when he spoke to reporters from the White House briefing room podium about the shooting death of Immigration and Customs Enforcement protester Renee Good.
Vance’s political leadership within the Republican Party has been underscored by his unprecedented position as Republican National Committee finance chairman, providing him with a fundraising edge before a potential 2028 presidential campaign.
“JD and his fundraising abilities will be essential to Republicans keeping control of the Congress,” Conda, the Republican strategist, said. “If we keep the House, he will gain a lot of chits with members of Congress going into a possible 2028 run.”
But reflecting on Vance’s first year as vice president, President Ronald Reagan biographer Craig Shirley recommended that he stand firm on his position within Trump’s administration, quipping that the vice president “could use a bumper sticker.”
“Vance is being the dutiful VP, following the model set by George H.W. Bush in the 1980s when he was second in command after Reagan,” Shirley told the Washington Examiner. “He needs a blue ribbon commission to chair or a task force to run, something that will keep him in front of the voters.”
Regardless, Vance is the current front-runner in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, though early, hypothetical polls are undermined by Vance’s name recognition compared to other prospective candidates.
To that end, Vance has an average of 49% support compared to his closest competitor, Donald Trump Jr.’s 11%, according to RealClearPolitics. Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) have 9% support apiece.
In response, Democrats, such as Democratic strategist Andrew Bates, described Vance as “a target for both 2028 Democrats and Republicans” alike.
“He’s weakening himself by selling out core positions he took a very short time ago, like on the [Jeffrey] Epstein files, on starting foreign conflicts, and Medicaid cuts,” Bates told the Washington Examiner. “Vance’s short-term and long-term goals are in conflict because he’s endorsing every unpopular thing Trump does to try and maintain influence within the administration, but those decisions will haunt him when they turn into loud contrasts with primary opponents and Democrats at once.”
For Republican strategist John Feehery, Vance should be more mindful of his political appeal among women, many of whom he mocked as “childless cat ladies” during the 2024 presidential election, as well as Republican hawks who are concerned about his more isolationist foreign policy.
When asked what his advice to Vance would be before 2028, Feehery told the Washington Examiner, “That no matter how much fun it is to get peace deals overseas, never forget the struggles on the average American voter.”
Nevertheless, Vance, 41, who was only elected to the Senate in 2022 after the Iraq War Marine Corps veteran and Yale Law School graduate’s career as a corporate lawyer, Senate aide, and venture capitalist before publishing his Netflix-adapted memoir Hillbilly Elegy in 2016, already has the 2028 endorsement of TPUSA, even outgoing Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA).
TPUSA spokesman Andrew Kolvet dismissed concerns about Vance’s appeal among women, pointing instead to the vice president’s appeal among men, as demonstrated last year during his multiple appearances on manosphere podcasts.
“I’ve heard that pushback, but I mean, they said the same thing about Trump, right?” Kolvet told the Washington Examiner. “I think that’s an unfair label to put on him because of some of the original attacks that were levied on him right out the gate when he was named the VP candidate, some of the clips that were dragged up, the [opposition] research that was dropped on him. I think that’s what people are actually reacting to and responding to, less so what’s real life.”
Kolvet added that Vance is gaining “mountains of invaluable experience” as vice president, “navigating this world that very few have ever fully been exposed to,” learning who he “can trust,” who gives “good advice,” and who are “good operators,” which is “incredible wisdom moving forward.”
“Some of his Twitter back and forths have been some, I think, some of the most valuable communication that has come out of this White House, and it shows some of the intricacies and the nuance of his thinking,” Kolvet said. “He’s been embraced by the meme lords on the Right, and I think that’s been massively helpful. It adds personality. And he’s handled it really, really well, embraced it.”
Despite the apparent rivalry between Vance and Rubio as the pair prepares for probable competing 2028 campaigns, the vice president has several supporters within the administration.
“JD Vance has been the most consequential vice president in modern American history,” Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz told the Washington Examiner. “He’s the president’s right hand and most trusted adviser. The entire Trump White House and MAGA movement are incredibly proud of the work he’s done to advance the president’s agenda.”
Trump himself last August called Vance “most likely” his heir apparent, telling reporters, “It’s too early, obviously, to talk about it, but certainly he’s doing a great job, and he would be probably favored at this point.”
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Trump has additionally praised Rubio, encouraging the pair to run as a ticket because, “If they formed a group, it would be unstoppable.”
Rubio has reportedly told confidants that Vance has the first right of refusal should the vice president want to launch a presidential campaign.
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