2026 is a pivotal year for Trump’s second term

If Republicans lose control of either house of Congress, it will be extremely difficult for Trump to do anything legislatively for the remainder of his presidency.

Republicans have a historically small majority in the House, currently just 220 to 213, with two vacancies. The Senate’s GOP majority is somewhat more robust at 53-47. All 435 House seats and about a third of the Senate are up for reelection next year.

Under the Constitution, all tax and spending legislation must originate in the House. That’s also where impeachment proceedings start. During Trump’s first term, a Democratic-controlled House impeached him twice, though he was not convicted by the Senate either time.

The Senate confirms executive and judicial branch appointees. If Democrats took the majority there, it would become difficult to get new nominees approved. The Cabinet might be frozen in place, because Democrats would effectively have veto power over any replacements. It would also be challenging to shift the Supreme Court’s conservative majority, which Trump bolstered with the help of a Republican-controlled Senate during his first term, any further to the right.

Just last year, the Democrats were able to force the longest government shutdown on record without controlling either house of Congress. Their hand would be strengthened by a majority in either chamber.

The presidential race will also begin in earnest once the midterm elections are complete. Trump is term-limited and, all joking aside, appears to accept that he cannot run in 2028. Vice President JD Vance is being groomed to take his place, possibly on a ticket with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

As will be the case in the midterm elections, the economy is likely to be the biggest issue in 2028. This is especially true of inflation and the cost of living, which loomed large in the big Democratic wins in the 2025 off-year elections. But if Democrats win either house of Congress, it will be harder for Trump to influence the direction of the economy. The fate of Trump’s tariffs, which have been challenged at the Supreme Court, is also uncertain.

Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation may be more fully felt in 2026. The previous year closed with a report of 4.3% GDP growth, which is fairly robust. Trump will have the opportunity to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman, which could have a major economic impact, especially given the Fed’s dual mandate on inflation and unemployment. Trump may get another bite at reconciliation, the party-line he used to pass his One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025.

Yet Trump’s ability to reshape the narrative on the economy could be limited to the next 12 months. When inflation was last a major issue more than 40 years ago, then-President Ronald Reagan and Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker were unable to resolve it without a major spike in unemployment in time for the 1982 midterm elections, leading to major Republican losses. But inflation had been tamed, and the economy was booming by the following year. Reagan won reelection in a 49-state landslide in 1984.

Trump heads into 2026 with a job approval rating of 43.4%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. That’s comparable to where former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush were at this point in their second terms, although Trump is unusual in that his terms aren’t consecutive. 

On the economy, however, Trump’s approval rating averages just 40.7%. That’s an improvement over former President Joe Biden for most of his term. There has also been a slight improvement in the public’s view of the direction of the country. These numbers nevertheless remain too low for the comfort of Republicans seeking reelection this year.

Historically speaking, the party that controls the White House loses congressional seats, especially in the president’s first midterm election. Democrats won 41 House seats and the chamber’s majority when Trump last faced a midterm election in 2018.

Republicans are hoping they can do better this time because they hold more safe red seats than in 2018. They are also betting that they can expand the number of GOP pickup opportunities through early redistricting in red states. 

TRUMP’S AFFORDABILITY CONUNDRUM 

But so far, redistricting has been a mixed bag at best for Republicans, with blue-state Democrats fighting back in places like California. House Republicans have also been rocked by early retirements and even resignations, with former Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) set to step down soon. And Democrats don’t need many pickups to flip the House.

For Trump, 2026 could be his last, best opportunity to cement his legacy without Democratic interference.