The estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is all but certain to inflame an already intense debate inside the G.O.P. about the fiscal consequences of their bill to enact President Trump’s agenda.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the broad Republican bill to cut taxes and slash some federal programs would add $2.4 trillion to the already soaring national debt over the next decade, in an analysis that was all but certain to inflame concerns that President Trump’s domestic agenda would lead to excessive government borrowing.
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Costs
$4.2 trillion
Tax cuts
Spending hikes
Savings
$1.8 trillion
$2.4 trillion
added to the debt
Costs
$4.2 trillion
Tax cuts
Spending hikes
Savings
$1.8 trillion
$2.4 trillion added to the debt
The C.B.O. estimate focused on the version of the bill that passed the House late last month, but the tally could change as Republicans in the Senate begin to put their imprint on the legislation. G.O.P. lawmakers there want to deepen some of the bill’s tax cuts, while others are pressing to pare back some its cuts to Medicaid, the government health care program for the poor, and clean-energy tax incentives.
Conservatives and Wall Street investors had already expressed grave concerns that the measure would swell federal deficits, and some Senate Republicans have said they cannot back the legislation in its current form for that reason. That could derail the bill’s progress, given that the party can afford to lose no more than three votes in the Senate if all Democrats vote against it.
The United States government currently has roughly $29 trillion in public debt, and C.B.O. had previously forecast that it would grow by roughly $21 trillion over the next decade, reaching nearly $50 trillion in 2034, as a growing share of Americans take advantage of government retirement support. With a roughly $3.8 trillion tax cut at its core, the Republican bill had long been expected to significantly add to that debt and make a precarious situation worse.
Hard-right lawmakers in the House demanded that the G.O.P. use its total control of Washington to also slash spending and contain the cost of the legislation. The cuts it included were ultimately significant, with changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act that the C.B.O. projected would save roughly $1 trillion over a decade while also resulting in nearly 11 million Americans losing their health insurance.
