The Marist survey suggests that Andrew M. Cuomo is still the favorite to win the Democratic primary, but his advantage over Zohran Mamdani is dwindling.
The Democratic primary for New York City mayor has tightened into a two-man sprint in its final days, with former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo maintaining a modest but diminished lead over Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, according to a new poll released on Wednesday.
The survey from the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found that 38 percent of likely voters planned to rank Mr. Cuomo first on their ballots, compared with 27 percent for Mr. Mamdani. In a simulation of the city’s ranked-choice voting system, the former governor prevailed over Mr. Mamdani by 10 percentage points in the seventh round.
Yet, with less than a week to go before the June 24 primary, the results also showed signs of momentum for Mr. Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist running on an economic populist message. He cut the lead Mr. Cuomo held in a Marist poll in May by nearly half by consolidating progressives and making inroads with Latino voters.
“Mamdani is clearly in Cuomo’s rearview mirror,” said Lee M. Miringoff, the poll’s director. “What’s the line? Objects in the mirror may be closer than they appear.”
The Marist survey was one of the few quality, nonpartisan polls published in the chaotic final weeks of the race, which has been dominated by affordability, public safety and the return of President Trump. It had a margin of error of 4.3 percent and found 11 percent of likely voters were still undecided.
The poll, however, was conducted between June 9 and 12, so it did not capture the impact of a string of major campaign events that included the contest’s final televised debate; the announcement of a cross-endorsement between Mr. Mamdani and Brad Lander, the city comptroller; and an ad barrage attacking the assemblyman.
