The War, Explained

One way to look at Israel’s war with Iran is that it’s a natural escalation of the battles that the Jewish state has fought since the Oct. 7 attack. Israel has leveled much of Gaza to destroy Hamas, which is backed by Iran. It bombed Lebanon and Yemen to counter Hezbollah and the Houthi militia, both of which are also backed by Iran. Now, instead of focusing on proxies, Israel is taking its fight directly to Iran.

But the timing matters. After all, the conflict between Israel and Iran isn’t new. Iran’s leaders have called for Israel’s destruction for decades. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has characterized Iran as an existential threat for decades. Western officials have debated the wisdom of a pre-emptive attack on Iran’s nuclear program for decades.

What’s new is that Israel now believes it can win.

Why now?

Three issues led Israel to strike last week:

Nuclear weapons: Israeli officials claim that Iranian scientists are close to making a nuclear weapon — potentially months away. (U.S. officials are more divided on the topic, CNN reported.) Netanyahu said he had to strike now before they completed their work.

More urgently, though, Netanyahu likely worried that President Trump would sign a new nuclear agreement with Iran’s leaders. Israel opposed the previous deal, established under Barack Obama, in part because it let Iran keep some nonmilitary nuclear capabilities. If Trump reached a similar agreement, Israel couldn’t strike without violating the spirit of that deal and upsetting its biggest ally.

At least for now, Israel has global support in this mission. Western countries see Iran as a threat because it has supported militants around the world. They’re happy to let Israel take the burden of dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, even if they disagree with Israel on other issues. Several Group of 7 countries condemned Israel last month for its offensive in Gaza but blessed it Monday for its strikes on Iran.

Iran’s weakness: Iran is not doing well. Years of sanctions have eroded its economy. Israel and the United States have killed many of its military leaders. They’ve also pummeled its proxies across the Middle East. All of this limits Iran’s ability to retaliate.