An incumbent president’s party usually loses seats in the House and Senate during midterm elections, but President Donald Trump is sitting on a $375 million political war chest that Republicans believe could blunt — or even upend— that pattern if he spends it aggressively.
Trump’s fundraising committees and allied PACs have stockpiled the massive sum as of the end of 2025, according to campaign finance records. The amount dwarfs that on hand by Democrats, who remain leaderless and rudderless ahead of the 2026 elections.
Yet, money only matters if Trump chooses to deploy it, something the president has been criticized for not doing for GOP candidates in the past. Last year, there were even questions regarding whether Trump planned to endorse the 2025 Virginia GOP gubernatorial nominee, Winsome Earle-Sears.
A party strategist close to the White House was adamant that Trump would spend this year, even if history were against Republicans.
In conversations with the Washington Examiner, the source also cited Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc., for example, spending last year on Rep. Matt Van Epps’ (R-TN) special election win in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
A second Republican strategist who was granted anonymity to speak candidly quipped that the GOP would “love” for Trump “to spend all this money” after the president last weekend endorsed the likes of former Sen. John Sununu for New Hampshire’s open Senate race.
“I don’t think we’d turn down any funding for House races, that’s for sure,” the source told the Washington Examiner. “But in all seriousness, I think we’re very encouraged by the amount of money that is in the ecosystem. And that’s something that we’ve never really had before.”
“It puts us in a really good position,” he added. “If we were able to win last cycle being outspent as much as we did, then imagine what we can do when we actually have the cash advantage.”
When pressed on MAGA Inc.’s plans for this year after the super PAC raised an unparalleled $289 million in 2025, spokesman Alexander Pfeiffer declined to provide specific details.
Pfeiffer did say that thanks to Trump’s leadership, the super PAC has “the resources to help candidates who support President Trump’s America First agenda of securing our border, keeping our streets safe, supercharging our economy, and making life more affordable for all Americans.”
For Republican National Committee spokeswoman Kiersten Pels, Trump’s “record is driving historic grassroots support and giving Republican candidates the opportunity to defy history in the midterms.”
The RNC had $95 million cash on hand as of Dec. 31. 2025, compared to the Democratic National Committee’s $14 million, excluding the DNC’s $17 million in debt after former Vice President Kamala Harris’s failed 2024 presidential campaign.
“Democrats and their left-wing allies are preparing to flood the midterms with outside money, which is exactly why the RNC has built this war chest — to go toe-to-toe with that spending, conduct targeted voter outreach, and support President Trump and our candidates nationwide,” Pels told the Washington Examiner. “This momentum puts Republicans in a strong position heading into 2026.”
To that end, both Democrats and Republicans are preparing in case the Supreme Court this summer decides that the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 unconstitutionally restricts how political committees coordinate regarding campaign advertising for their party’s candidates.
Such a Supreme Court decision, expected before July, would essentially do away with the demarcations among the different committees, solidifying Trump and Republicans’ advantage.
Nevertheless, Democratic strategist Christopher Hahn underscored that Texas Democratic state Senate candidate Taylor Rehmet last weekend defeated Trump-endorsed Leigh Wambsganss in a district that Trump won by 17 percentage points in 2024, with $380,000 to Wambsganss’ $2.5 million.
“Money won’t save Republicans in 2026,” Hahn told the Washington Examiner.
Democratic strategist Stefan Hankin agreed, but acknowledged that Democrats need money to compete against Republicans, especially if the party does not make donors “feel good about opening up the checkbook” after declining to disclose its 2024 election review.
“We want to be able to compete in as many of those districts as humanly possible because this could be the year where we steal a bunch of seats that we really have no business winning, in theory, while Trump’s still in office,” Hankin told the Washington Examiner. “We want to be able to expand the playing field as much as humanly possible and, if the money’s not there, if we’re not organized to do this, we’re going to fall short of winning the majority, at least in the House, the way things look right now.”
In response, the DNC emphasized Trump’s lack of popularity and claimed that “the writing is on the wall in the midterms” as many Democratic candidates in toss-up races outraised their Republican opponents.
“The American people want change from the broken, billionaire-first agenda that Trump and Republicans are offering, and no matter how much rich donors spend trying to keep them in office, working families know that their bills are too high, their healthcare is too expensive, and it’s Republicans’ fault,” DNC spokeswoman Nina Raneses told the Washington Examiner.
Hankin, the strategist, did echo that Democratic talking point, contending that he is “hard pressed to come up with a way that the Republicans are going to, all of a sudden, polish that turd.”
“How are they going to make voters feel better about things other than their pure base?” he asked. “Yes, you need money to turn out your base, but in general, I don’t see this as being like, ‘Oh, with $50 million, $100 million, you can come up with the messaging that’s going to change the hearts and minds of where Americans are given everything that’s going on.”
Despite the fundraising gap, Democrats have a slight polling advantage ahead of the midterm elections, averaging a 5-percentage-point edge over Republicans in generic congressional ballot polls, at least according to RealClearPolitics.
Republicans, too, are on defense in the House, as 14 of the 18 races Cook Political Report deems toss-ups are held by GOP lawmakers.
But the Senate toss-up races are more evenly split between Democrats and Republicans – the parties hold two of the four toss-up seats apiece, with the GOP having a three-seat majority even without Vice President JD Vance.
Trump has repeatedly complained about Republicans’ prospects in the midterm elections as he is simultaneously poised to make weekly campaign trips.
Of last Saturday’s Texas state Senate race, Trump downplayed his participation to reporters and classified the contest as being “local” and not national.
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“I’m not on the ballot,” the president said. “So you don’t know whether or not it’s transferable, but you put the Democrats in, you’ll end up with open borders again.”
Even so, history remains against Trump and Republicans. An incumbent president’s party has not retained unilateral control of Congress in its first midterm elections since Jimmy Carter in 1978.
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