How Retaliatory Tariffs by China, Canada and Mexico Could Harm American Farmers

A trade war with China during President Trump’s first term hit American farmers hard. This time, it could be worse.

On Tuesday, China’s Ministry of Finance said it would add tariffs of as much as 15 percent on a wide range of agricultural imports from the United States, including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton. Beijing’s retaliation for escalating American tariffs on Chinese-made products also includes 10 percent tariffs on imports of sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products.

Without specifying which products, Canada said on Tuesday that it would impose retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent on $20.5 billion worth of American goods, and Mexico promised to outline its response on Sunday. President Trump imposed 25 percent tariffs on products from both countries on Tuesday.

Farms are a target because agricultural products account for a large portion of U.S. exports, said Lynn Kennedy, a professor of agricultural economics at Louisiana State University. Politics are probably a factor, too.

“Rural areas tend to be politically a lot more conservative, and so if you look at where Trump’s base has been, or where the Republican base is, that has a higher tendency to be some of those agricultural states and areas,” Mr. Kennedy said.

As they did during the first Trump administration, the retaliatory tariffs could mean that American exports and prices paid for crops fall — as importers from China, Canada or Mexico look to Brazil or other large agricultural producers for alternatives.