Early voting closed last night, with approximately 46,000 ballots cast…a record for a special election in the district. Democrats continue to lead in early returns, holding roughly two thirds of ballots, while Republicans are banking on a strong in person turnout tomorrow to close the gap.

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Analilia Mejia (D) maintains a visible early‑vote advantage, powered by progressive endorsements and grassroots mobilization across Essex and Morris Counties. Her campaign’s final messaging emphasizes economic fairness and protecting democracy. Joe Hathaway (R), Randolph councilman and former mayor, is focusing on fiscal discipline and local governance, urging voters to “restore balance” in Washington. Alan Bond (Independent) remains a minor factor but could influence margins among unaffiliated voters.

No public polling has been released; internal data suggest Mejia leads narrowly, though analysts caution that Republican Election Day turnout could tighten results. The race remains competitive and nationally watched, as a Democratic win would narrow the 218–213 GOP House majority heading into the midterms.

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