Republicans Face Tough Challenges to Keep Texas Red

Republicans in Texas face headwinds in federal and state elections, with the U.S. Senate race a toss-up and popular incumbents such as Gov. Greg Abbott facing tight races.

​Traditionally, midterms have rarely favored the party in power in Washington, but polls show down-ballot Republicans in Texas struggling this election cycle as well.

​Some analysts attribute the GOP’s difficulties in Texas to eroding support for Trump among Hispanic voters and frustration over high gas and grocery prices. Others contend Republicans aren’t as bad off as polls suggest.

​Republicans face perhaps their biggest challenge in nearly a decade to hold on to the U.S. Senate.

​State Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, faces his own headwinds. He portrays himself as a progressive Christian who supports abortion and transgender advocacy for children, and he once called God “nonbinary” on the Texas House floor.

​Statewide races are no less contentious. Democrats are seeking to use their midterm advantage to oust incumbent Republicans such as Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

Abbott has faced criticism for his early support of data centers, with one analyst saying it likely hurt his grassroots support. His Democratic opponent, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, has embraced public opposition to data centers in her campaign.

Jeff Burton, a founding partner at Maven Advocacy in Austin and longtime GOP strategist, said Abbott’s previous support for data centers likely hurt him.

Hinojosa blames Republicans for higher gas and grocery prices. Abbott has campaigned on Texas’ pro-business environment, border security, and lower property taxes.

Voter Motivation

Republicans who filled an airport hangar during Paxton’s October campaign stop in conservative Rockwall didn’t appear fazed by negative polling. Several said they were enthusiastic and considered it important to vote red.

Bill England, a 70-year-old retired Navy veteran, told The Epoch Times he’s against socialism, high taxes, and gun control on the left. He also made sure his conservative friends and neighbors voted.

“Talarico is not a Democrat. He’s a socialist,” England told The Epoch Times. “I spent 21 years of my life fighting socialists. So I’m sure as hell not going to put one in office.”

​England said Americans should be thankful Trump stopped Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.

​“People in New York and New Jersey and Virginia and, you know, all those … liberal states we have up there should be thanking [Trump], because if he hadn’t done anything, by this time they would already have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “In six months, they’d have a missile they could send straight into downtown New York.”

​Robin Shipman drove 35 miles to attend Paxton’s rally. She said people are mistaken if they think Republicans aren’t going to vote.

“I loved that it was almost like a prayer meeting, and he backs what I back: faith, freedom, the American way, Texas, and family,” she told The Epoch Times.

​“If we don’t fight for what we believe in, we are going to lose our country,” she added.

David Block of Rockwall told The Epoch Times that Paxton better reflects his Christian values and will likely have strong support in rural areas.

“I think this is going to be another Beto O’Rourke scenario,” he said.

​Block referred to the surprisingly close 2018 midterm race for U.S. Senate in Texas between Democratic challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke and incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz, who won.

​Talarico supporters said they liked his position on lowering prices and don’t feel Paxton does enough to support them and their families.

“My mom’s a diabetic,” Allyson Marin, a student at nearby Texas State University, told The Epoch Times in mid-October. “It helps a lot if the prices are lower.”

At a coffee shop in San Marcos, Allison Ekrot told The Epoch Times that she supports Talarico because of “his policies and what he stands for.”

Paxton uses insulting rhetoric and “doesn’t seem to actually do anything,” she added.

Hispanic Tug-of-War

​Abbott’s challenger, Hinojosa, drew a sizable Hispanic crowd during a late October rally in Fort Worth. Her campaign has been focused on winning their support.

​Samuel Infante, 21, was one such Latino who favored a Democratic governor.

After the rally, he told The Epoch Times that he voted for Hinojosa. As a first-time voter, he was worried about high gas and grocery prices and school choice hurting public schools.

​As a college student, Infante liked Hinojosa’s promise to pay Texans a $1,500 tax refund from the state’s Rainy Day Fund.

​“I’m starting my future off. I’m going to school. I got student loans. I can’t afford all that, and she’s promising me a better future, an easier future,” he said.

​Yet Republicans have slowly won Hispanic support in Texas over the last few election cycles.

​Now, some polls indicate the GOP has lost much of that support in 2026, though others dispute the results.

When Trump was elected president in 2024, he gained unprecedented support among Hispanic voters in South Texas, at roughly 55 percent. In 2020, he won about 40 percent of the Latino vote.

A Cook Political Report poll said Hispanics favored Democrats 2–1 statewide in 2026.

That poll, which ended in early September, showed Talarico leading Paxton among Hispanic voters by 63 percent to 30 percent, including 73 percent of self-described independents.

Likewise, Abbott, who won 40 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2022, is favored by only 33 percent of Hispanics, according to the same poll.

​Still, one expert told The Epoch Times the polls don’t reflect what he’s seeing on the ground.

​Abraham Enriquez, founder of Bienvenido US, a conservative Hispanic outreach organization, believes conservative Hispanics will be the reason Texas stays red.

​“This new wave of Republican voters, which happen to be majority Hispanic, we’re the ones actually keeping our party alive,” Enriquez told The Epoch Times.

​He recently sensed a shift among Hispanics who were reluctant to support Paxton, but have come around.

Some Hispanic voters see Paxton as supporting families, he said. Talarico’s positions on cultural issues—especially transgender issues and what Enriquez called the “breaking down of the nuclear family”—could alienate faith-based Hispanic voters.

He described his father as a typical Hispanic who works long hours and doesn’t have time to follow politics in the media. To his father, Paxton appears more supportive of families and traditional values.

However, Enriquez said Democratic voter-registration efforts have paid off in the state. Close polling should warn Republicans to improve their efforts between elections, he said.

In response, the Republican National Committee has launched a Hispanic voter outreach program in South Texas.

​The program, called Proyecto Lone Star, identified about 700,000 persuadable Hispanic voters who could “help make or break” races for governor, Senate, attorney general, and down-ballot offices.

​Hispanic organizations have been block walking, phone banking, and registering voters this election cycle, he added.

Money, Money, Money

​Jeff Burton, a founding partner at Maven Advocacy in Austin and longtime GOP strategist, said voters face high gas prices every time they fill up, putting the issue front and center for many.

​He connects data centers to concerns over high energy costs. Farmers and ranchers are particularly concerned about diesel prices.

“They’re just thinking about what gas prices were most recently, and how they are now,” he said.

​Burton said voters are tying those price hikes to Republicans and Trump, who promised to bring prices down. The Iran war is also unpopular.

He said it’s a hard sell right now for Republicans to note high gas prices under Biden, who supported ending fossil fuels and revoked the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline.

​Beyond the pump, Burton mentioned food costs, with staples such as milk, dairy, chicken, and beef remaining high.

​According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, grocery prices aren’t climbing as dramatically as before. Data show an unadjusted 1.8 percent increase over the 12 months ending this September.

​Polling Pitfalls

​Most October polls showed Talarico ahead, but a few right-leaning polls, such as InsiderAdvantage, broke the trend; a mid-October poll showed Paxton at 49 percent and Talarico at 48 percent.

Paxton supporters like Block suggested unfavorable polls might backfire and strengthen Republican turnout.

“I think that what they’re doing is actually sealing the election for the Republican Party,” he said.

England added that he doesn’t believe the polls.

“They’re usually from a university. I don’t trust universities because they’ve been infiltrated by the leftists,” he said.

​Burton said polls have historically undercounted Republican support in Texas, pointing to past polling that showed close races where Republicans ultimately won by wider margins.

​If they are off again, Paxton could have an edge in the Senate race.

​“This race is going to come down to the wire, and traditionally, polls have undercounted Republican votes, and I think that’s the best hope that Ken Paxton has for victory,” Burton said.

​While most polls show Abbott leading his Democratic opponent by 2 to 3 points, one University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll ending on Oct. 5, sampling 861 likely voters, showed him trailing Hinojosa by 1 percentage point.

​The same poll showed incumbent Patrick trailing Democratic challenger state Rep. Vikki Goodwin by 3 points. Most show Patrick with a 4- to 7-point lead.

Nathan Worcester contributed to this report.