The Democratic Rout Is On

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff was long considered the most vulnerable incumbent in the country. He had narrowly won his race in a runoff in 2020 tilted by Donald Trump’s election denial, and Republicans had long salivated over their chance to take him out. His race was called before primetime coverage started on broadcast television.

Democrats strolled to victory in other seats that Republicans had once targeted but slowly grown more pessimistic about. Former Gov. Roy Cooper flipped North Carolina from red to blue while incumbent Congressman Chris Pappas comfortably held the Granite State’s Senate seat. But none of that is a surprise—nor a particularly strong indicator of whether the midterms would be a blue wave or mere blue trickle for Democrats.

The big flashing sign has come in South Carolina. Just before 10 p.m., the networks called the Senate race for Democrat Annie Andrews, a doctor turned activist who, in a shocker, has defeated the appointed incumbent Darline Graham. With almost 90 percent of the vote in, Andrews led by 51 percent to 47 percent. The networks had seen enough: Andrews was the victor.

It wasn’t long before any doubt that Graham’s loss was a fluke was wiped away.

Texas Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, according to network calls that landed a few minutes before 11 p.m. After a decade of near misses and setbacks, Democrats have finally come through in a statewide race in the Lone Star State. Talarico, a state lawmaker, was the latest in a long line of charismatic Democrats projected to have a chance. Unlike past candidates, however, Talarico consistently led in the polls. And on Tuesday night, that polling lead became a victory.

The Senate will be in Democratic control. At the start of the night, they needed to net four seats to retake control of Congress’ upper chamber. Talarico’s takedown of Paxton gave them three (after already flipping Senate seats in both North and South Carolina).

The dominoes kept falling: They flipped Ohio, with Sherrod Brown beating Jon Husted. They flipped Kansas, with Adam Hamilton thumping Republican Roger Marshall and becoming the first Democrat to join the U.S. Senate from the Sunflower State in nearly a century.

Still, South Carolina was the shocker of the night. The state has long been safe Republican territory. In 2020, Democrats spent over $100 million trying to defeat Darline’s late brother, Lindsey Graham. They lost by 10 points.

Darline Graham is certainly not her brother. She is a tremendously poor candidate who stood on a debate stage and declared: “I’m not that informed on national security.” Her Republican primary opponent, archconservative Ralph Norman, actively criticized her during the general election, and there was real resentment among South Carolina Republicans that she got the Senate seat via nepotism, as Trump backed her simply because of his relationship with her brother.

But although Darline Graham is a political neophyte who has run a poor race, it’s still South Carolina, a state that no Democratic presidential candidate has won since Jimmy Carter. That the state was even close, let alone winnable by Andrews, was a sign that this was going to be a historic night for Democrats.

When asked by Slate about Graham’s struggles before the race was called, Norman said via text he was “not surprised AT ALL!”

The real surprise will likely be how many other Republicans in races that were seemingly safe will now lose too. If South Carolina isn’t a safe space for Republicans, where is?

Read more of Slate’s election coverage.

This is a breaking news story and has been updated with new information as it became available.