Vulnerable Republican wins GOP primary in Arizona toss-up district Dems aim to flip blue

Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., clinched the GOP primary nomination in a battleground district Democrats see as key to retaking the House.

Ciscomani, a moderate Republican seeking a third House term, ran unopposed with President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

The southeastern Arizona district, which spans Tucson’s suburbs and stretches to the U.S.-Mexico border, is one of the most hotly contested House races in the country. Trump carried the swing seat by less than 1 percentage point in 2024 after losing it by roughly the same margin in 2020.

JoAnna Mendoza, a Marine veteran and political consultant, also ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. She has faced several scandals that could undermine her House bid heading into November.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., arrives for the House Republican Conference caucus meeting at the Capitol Hill Club in Washington on May 13, 2026. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc.)

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The Democrat hopeful has come under recent scrutiny for following several OnlyFans models and self-described witches on her official campaign Instagram account.

The sexually explicit accounts included one belonging to a transgender socialist activist who posted pictures in BDSM gear, the New York Post first reported.

Mendoza, who is openly bisexual, has also faced GOP attacks after remarks resurfaced from 2020 in which she said she would decriminalize prostitution in response to a question from Equality Arizona, an LGBTQ advocacy group, about the struggles of “trans women of color.”

“It’s important to ensure that there’s access to the resources, the support networks, the social services, access to healthcare,” Mendoza said in the interview, adding, “We need to stop criminalizing people for their situations.”

JoAnna Mendoza, a candidate for Congress, is running in one of the country’s most competitive races in 2026.  (JoAnna Mendoza for Congress/YouTube screenshot)

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“Far-left lobbyist Mendoza is a risk working Arizonans literally cannot afford,” NRCC spokesman Ben Petersen said in a statement.

Democrats view Mendoza as a strong recruit and have added the political newcomer to their flagship “Red to Blue” candidate program.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates Ciscomani’s re-election bid as a “toss-up.”

Ciscomani, who previously served as a senior advisor to former Gov. Doug Ducey, R-Ariz., and the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, is likely to highlight his bipartisan credentials as he seeks a third House term.

He is a member of the centrist Problem Solvers Caucus and the Main Street Caucus, which identifies as “pragmatic” conservatives.

Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Ariz., second from left, joins President Donald Trump during a “Beautiful, Clean Coal” event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Ciscomani defeated former state Sen. Kirsten Engel, D-Ariz., by more than 3 percentage points in a 2024 rematch. He first won the seat in 2022, defeating Engel by fewer than 6,000 votes and becoming the first naturalized citizen from Mexico elected to Congress.