Why the under on runs looks like the smart baseball play when Pirates visit the Reds tonight

Yesterday did not go as expected. I lost one game between the Giants and Padres as Robbie Ray spun a gem in what could be his last start for the squad. Sometimes you run into that, and all you can do is tip your cap to the other team. I’ll suck it up and move on, and hopefully get some of that money back here today as we play the Pirates vs. the Reds.

The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to be in a similar cycle this season. They have one step forward and then one back. I suppose the good news is that they aren’t going one step forward and two steps backward. They are exactly at .500 coming into today’s game, sitting at 55-55 for the year. The final 52 games of the season will tell the story of whether this year is successful or not. Maybe that’s harsh, because this still should be a step-forward season, and one they can use for momentum moving forward.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) watches from the dugout in the sixth inning of the MLB National League game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025. (Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

I’ve written about the importance of Pittsburgh being aggressive in using this window for them to make a consistently good team. If they don’t, guys like today’s starter, Paul Skenes, will start looking for ways off the team. Skenes is 9-9 for the season with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. This is the worst season of his young career, but all of his numbers are 31st in the Majors or better. He has been worse on the road than at home, but not terrible. This has been a tough month for Skenes; he has allowed 17 earned runs in 27.2 innings of work. He has faced the Reds twice this season and allowed five earned runs in 10 innings of work.

The Cincinnati Reds took a step back this season after making the postseason. They started the season hot out of the gate. This team was 20-11 after April came to an end. Since then, they have gone 30-46. To start May, they lost eight consecutive games and went 4-13 to start the month. To start the second half of the season, they’ve gone 8-5. Perhaps the All-Star Break is what the team needed to make some adjustments.

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene (21) pitches against the Chicago Cubs in the second inning at Great American Ball Park on May 23, 2025. (Katie Stratman/Imagn Images)

There is more than enough time to make a run at the postseason, but they’ll need to get some better performances from their pitching staff. The Reds do have some good pitchers, so the adjustments can be made. Today’s starter, Hunter Greene, is one of the better young arms in the league, but he has struggled since he came into their rotation in early July. He has allowed 17 earned runs in 21.2 innings this season. In fairness to him, he has two quality starts and two disasters. Pirates hitters are batting .200 against him over 55 at-bats.

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We have two aces on the mound, guys who have, or could someday, win Cy Young awards. However, neither has been exactly impressive when it comes to consistency. Skenes has struggled all month. Greene has allowed 14 earned runs in two starts, and three earned runs in his other two. Which version of these pitchers is showing up?

Jake Fraley #27 and Elly De La Cruz #44 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrate after Fraley hit a home run in the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Great American Ball Park on June 23, 2023 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

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The Pirates haven’t been playing great baseball lately, so it is really hard to back them, even with Skenes on the mound. The Reds have been terrible at home — 24-30. I think the smarter option here is to take the under eight runs. Both teams know the importance of this game, and both starters will know how crucial it is to give their team a chance. Neither team has great numbers against the opposing starter, so I’ll back the under eight.

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