The midterm elections will give Vice President JD Vance an opportunity to build up political capital by campaigning for Republican candidates across the country, with the possibility of spending it later.
President Donald Trump has already indicated he will be hitting the campaign trail in an effort to protect the GOP’s fragile congressional majorities, returning to the hustings after three consecutive runs for the White House.
But Vance is the Republican National Committee’s finance chairman, a vital fundraising role in a challenging campaign season where the GOP’s monetary advantages will be called upon to counteract history and polling that favors the Democrats.
Republican operatives close to the White House told the Washington Examiner they expect Vance will be in high demand on the campaign trail in the coming months, with one calling him a “rock star.”
Vance has already been dispatched as part of the Trump administration’s affordability tour, in an attempt to regain control of the narrative on inflation and the cost of living. He also played a prominent role defending the Trump deportation program after the first fatal shooting of an American citizen in Minneapolis by an immigration enforcement officer.
But the midterm elections will be a difficult task. Democrats are favored in polls asking which party voters prefer to control Congress, with a 5.2-point edge in the latest RealClearPolitics average. Trump’s job approval rating is 42.1% in the same aggregation of polls, more than 13 points underwater.
The party controlling the White House has lost congressional seats in all but two midterm elections since 1938, with one exception following the unpopular impeachment of then-President Bill Clinton and the other in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
Republicans are hoping that fundraising success, voter registration gains, and the Democrats’ lurch to the left will help them write a different story. The RNC entered the year with nearly $100 million more than its Democratic counterparts and the Trump MAGA empire boasts a war chest of some $300 million.
But the alliances Vance forms and favors he will be owed by down-ballot Republicans could come in handy beyond this year, especially if he runs for president in 2028.
Possible Democratic rivals, such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), will engage in similar political activities this year with an eye toward 2028.
“The midterms are a chance for future presidential candidates to build relationships, test drive messages, and sharpen their political team,” said Republican strategist Alex Conant, who served as communications director for Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign. “This is a case where the means matter more than the ends. If Vance dedicates himself to helping candidates this year, he’ll build relationships that will be useful in a presidential race regardless of the midterm outcomes.”
Vance has already headlined multiple major fundraisers and is expected to do more in the coming weeks. His RNC role will help the Ohio populist build relationships, and a track record of success, with the GOP’s top money men.
“History will tell you that the best way is to get out to every congressional district possible and help his colleagues win reelection,” Republican strategist John Feehery said. “By collecting chits, he can build up alliances and a network of support. Richard Nixon most famously did that, but all successful presidential candidates use the midterms as a way to build up their networks.”
Nixon served as vice president under Dwight Eisenhower and, like Trump, went on to be the Republican presidential nominee three times and served two terms in the White House.
White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told the New York Post earlier this year that Trump is “going to campaign like it’s 2024” this year and “behave as though he is on the ballot.” Democrats will definitely do the latter, too, making the midterm elections a referendum on Trump.
Vance won’t sit on the sidelines either. For the administration, the 2026 elections will be all hands on deck. Democrats won big victories last November that they hope they can build on to doom the Trump legislative agenda.
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Shortly after the midterm elections, attention will begin to shift to the next presidential race. Republican campaign consultants said Vance could spend this year setting his party up for victory in both.
“He shouldn’t be waiting for Trump to give his endorsement and he should spend as much time as possible in early primary states,” Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “Don’t waste too much time in Washington.”
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