Trump and Rubio Suddenly Have a Chance to Reshape the Middle East

I have a simple rule of thumb when assessing the potential instability of Middle Eastern countries. They come in just two varieties: countries that implode and countries that explode. That is countries where, when central control collapses, the ruined pillars fall inside its borders, and countries where, when central control collapses, the blast radius of all the political shrapnel extends far and wide.

There is no country in the Middle East that explodes more than Syria. Whatever happens in Syria will not stay in Syria.

That is because Syria is both a keystone and a microcosm of the whole Middle East. As a keystone, once it crumbles, the effects radiate out in all directions.

As a microcosm — Syria has Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Kurds, Christians and Druse — whenever central control is loosened, it is a source of insecurity for every sect, so they often reach outside for help. It is also a source of opportunity for every regional power, so they often reach inside to tilt Syria their way. Historically, it took an iron-fisted leader in Damascus to keep Syria under control on the inside and deter regional powers who wanted to control it from the outside.

But because of Syria’s centrality, positive change there could also radiate out in all directions. And that brings me to the purpose of this column. Memo to secretary of state designate Marco Rubio: You may not realize it yet, but if confirmed, your first big challenge as President Donald Trump’s top diplomat may be to persuade him to abandon all of the isolationist-America-First-not-sure-we-want-to-stay-in-NATO-who-needs-allies-who-cares-about-“shithole”-countries rhetoric that Trump is known for, so you can help with — dare I say it — nation-building in Syria.

Because the toppling of President Bashar al-Assad by Syrian rebels is one of the biggest, potentially most positive, game-changing events in the Middle East in the last 45 years. The thing about opportunities in foreign policy, though, is they can come totally out of the blue — and the great presidents are the ones who seize them, even if it means eating a little crow.