President Joe Biden has scored a number of victories of late, all while his opposition in the 2024 general election, former President Donald Trump, is largely sidelined in his New York criminal hush money trial.
In recent weeks, Biden has made significant legislative headway, including the aversion of a government shutdown in March, the securing of a nearly $100 billion foreign aid package over the weekend, and the crumbling of a Republican-led impeachment of Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas just last week. The president is also beginning to see some positive indicators in 2024 polling focusing on swing states and nontraditional slices of the electorate.
Meanwhile, Trump, under gag order, has been forced to sit through negative media coverage of his criminal trial, the first ever in U.S. history for a former president, complete with anecdotes from courtroom reporters of him nodding off and passing gas in the courtroom.
“This election will be a choice between chaos and competence, and once again the American people will see a split screen this week between two candidates: one focused on the real issues that matter to the American people and one focused only on himself and his campaign of revenge and retribution,” Biden campaign spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg told the Washington Examiner. “While Donald Trump and his floundering campaign are busy with personal distractions and legal defenses, President Biden is talking about creating jobs, lowering costs, and protecting Americans’ fundamental rights.”
For months, Biden has trailed Trump in critical battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, yet a poll published in late March by Bloomberg and Morning Consult shows Biden up 1 point on Trump in Wisconsin and tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump led by just over 6 points in Pennsylvania the month prior.
A poll published Sunday by NBC News gave Trump a 2-point advantage with registered voters over Biden in a head-to-head matchup, with 10% undecided, but Biden’s team can pull multiple positive trends from the data.
In the 2020 general election, more than 66% of the electorate cast ballots, marking the highest turnout in an election since 1900. However, NBC’s poll found that enthusiasm among Democrats, Republicans, and independents appears to be lagging heading into this election cycle. Less than two-thirds of the poll’s sample said they were “very interested” in voting in November, with participants less likely to vote favoring Trump over Biden by 22 points. Conversely, Biden leads Trump by 9 points among participants very interested in voting.
The Harvard Youth Poll published in mid-April similarly found the two candidates neck-and-neck among people under 30, but Biden led Trump in that poll by nearly 20 points among likely voters under 30.
NBC’s Sunday poll also found a third-party candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., potentially spoiling things for Trump. Reports had indicated that Kennedy, who is running as an independent after dropping his Democratic primary challenge of the president, is staying in the race to help Trump, yet NBC found he’s actually pulling votes away from the former president.
Including third-party candidates, NBC found Biden up 39%-37% over Trump, with Kennedy polling at 13%, Jill Stein garnering 3%, and Cornel West just below her at 2%. The data suggest that 15% of Trump supporters in the head-to-head matchup split for Kennedy in an open race, compared to just 7% of Biden supporters.
Furthermore, Biden cleared a massive governmental hurdle this past week, which Democratic strategists familiar with his campaign strategy optimistically tell the Washington Examiner could sow chaos among Republicans ahead of November, in addition to advancing Biden’s own policies.
“What we’ve seen these past months is President Biden pulling on decades of Congressional experience to successfully outmaneuver a rookie Speaker and growing, ultra MAGA wing of the Republican lawmakers,” one strategist said. “Our allies desperately need that aid, and the president is delivering. On top of that, it might cost [House Speaker] Johnson his job. Republicans were outmatched from the get-go, despite their refusal to cooperate.”
Johnson’s office, however, said the new speaker managed to get concessions from Democrats by not taking up the original Senate-passed foreign aid bill as written.
“Instead of taking up the Senate’s bill or allowing a discharge to occur, the speaker gave House members a voice and passed a better policy through a better process,” a Johnson spokesperson said. “Unlike the Senate’s blank check, the House legislation provides for greater accountability over Ukraine aid, includes a loan instrument, ensures that Russian assets help pay for some of the bill, includes tough sanctions on Iran, Russia, and China, and forces TikTok out of the hands of the CCP.”
It’s not all smooth sailing for Biden.
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Biden’s general approval rating remains firmly underwater, with the RealClearPolitics polling average showing his favorability hovering just below 40%.
The president is also saddled with growing dissent among progressives regarding his handling of Israel’s war in Gaza. Polling had shown Biden losing support from Arab and Muslim Americans in Michigan and other swing states, and the string of university protests pushing for policy change regarding Israel could make it impossible for the president to retain his whole 2020 coalition this cycle.
