A youth movement is coming for the 2028 presidential election

As of Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) are the odds-on favorites on both Kalshi and Polymarket to be the next president. The group has an average age of 43. In 2029, when that group would be sworn into office, the average age would climb to 45. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), who has the fifth-best odds on both prediction markets, is currently 58.

Just one potential candidate would be a septuagenarian. Rahm Emanuel, the former U.S. House representative from Illinois, two-term mayor of Chicago, White House chief of staff for former President Barack Obama, and ambassador to Japan under Biden, would be 70 on Inauguration Day 2029.

But his odds at winning the presidency, much less the Democratic nomination, are long. Currently, Kalshi lists Emanuel’s chances of winning in 2028 at 2%. He is unlisted on Polymarket.

Furthermore, following a string of deaths and medical episodes suffered by members of Congress, there’s been a vociferous push to elect younger lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. A poll conducted by NPR this past spring found that 80% of respondents supported term limits for both the U.S. House and Senate. A similar number supported putting age caps on all elected officials, with 78% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans voicing support.

Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he’d be “OK with term limits” but voiced some doubt that Congress would vote to shackle itself.

“Term limits are very popular with the public. I’ve seen it both ways. I’ve seen where people go in, and they get termed out, and they’re very talented, and they’re at the height of their career, and you end up with total rookies in there. Nothing gets done. And I’ve seen it the other way, where people are there too long. We see that all the time,” he said at the White House. “But I’m OK with term limits. Remember, the people that have to pass term limits are the people that are going to be voting on them to get out of office. So it’s a little bit tough.”

Reporting on Biden’s fitness hit a fever pitch during the latter years of his term. His apparently diminished faculties forced Democrats to swap him out for Vice President Kamala Harris just months before Election Day in 2024.

And though Trump, now 80, was older than Biden, now 83, when sworn in for his second term, his high-energy demeanor and frequent public appearances have largely insulated him from the age attacks the Biden White House endured. Still, the internet frequently theorizes about his age and health, accusing him of falling asleep during events and scaling back his public schedule. The White House has written off both notions as conspiracy theories.

One former senior Trump White House aide told the Washington Examiner that talk of Trump’s age and health is “the chickens coming home to roost.”

“It’s one thing to keep up that pace when you’re on the outside, but when you’ve actually got the responsibilities of running the free world resting on your shoulders, the age shows,” that person assessed. “Makes me wonder if he wishes we didn’t go after Biden so hard — what did he expect was going to happen? They weren’t going to do the same to him?”

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A top aide in the Biden White House similarly told the Washington Examiner that “it’s not surprising” that the 2028 presidential frontrunners are all decades younger than the current and previous president.

“I think what you’re seeing is a realization from voters that age matters. Not necessarily from a physical or mental standpoint, although it’s hard to ignore that, but more so from shared life experiences,” the aide commented. “These guys — they just haven’t grown up in the same world that under-45’s have had to deal with. It can be difficult to see yourselves in them, to trust them to come up with solutions that young people are currently facing.”