Pennsylvania is expected to be one of the most closely contested states in this fall’s election, and with his opponent sidelined, President Joe Biden is barnstorming it with a three-stop tour this week.
Biden will campaign first in Scranton, the city where he was born and spent his earliest years, followed by a Wednesday appearance in Pittsburgh and two rallies Thursday in Philadelphia. All will contrast Biden’s tax plans with those of former President Donald Trump.
“Starting tomorrow in Scranton, the day after tax day, the president will outline how Trump’s tax plan is a handout to the rich and leads the middle class holding the bag,” Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler said on a call with reporters previewing the president’s remarks.
The tour comes as Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, is temporarily sidelined with a trial in Manhattan, leaving him away from the campaign trail.
Both candidates will focus heavily on Pennsylvania during the election, as Biden’s three-city, three-day tour attests. Trump won the traditionally blue state in 2016 en route to his massive upset victory over Hillary Clinton, and Biden took it back four years later with a win of less than 100,000 votes.
Biden carries the advantage of incumbency this time, but that may make little difference given the unique circumstances of this election.
“It’s almost like they’re both incumbents,” Grove City College political science professor Michael Coulter said. “And in fact, it might be hurting Biden more than helping. Some small portion of the electorate just wants to see change and isn’t primarily moved by partisan identification.”
Coulter calls the race in Pennsylvania 50/50 at this point and further notes that it will be very difficult for either candidate to win the election without the Keystone State and its 19 Electoral College votes.
Some politicos have taken note of the state’s population loss and demographic shifts since 2020. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Pennsylvania lost 40,000 residents from 2020 to 2023, much of that in the Democratic strongholds of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
But Coulter notes that many of those residents simply relocated to the suburbs, which is where the race will likely be determined.
“There is thought to be a structural advantage to Biden because of the concentration of votes in urban and suburban areas,” Coulter said. “The candidate who wins the suburbs wins.”
Biden campaign staffers say that his approach will be better for working- and middle-class voters.
“Trump’s plan for a second term results in an average tax cut of $3.5 million for the 1,500 richest individuals in America,” former Biden National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said. “To give you a sense of magnitude, that $3.5 million per year tax cut for a single individual is about 70 times what a typical family in Scranton, Pennsylvania, makes in an entire year.”
Biden’s campaign promises that Trump will “lower billionaires’ tax bills by millions of dollars,” while Biden will “make the ultrawealthy and corporations pay their fair share.”
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment from the Washington Examiner. However, the Republican National Committee released a statement Monday afternoon saying Biden has already raised taxes on the middle class.
The RNC claims Biden’s latest budget proposal includes nearly $4.7 trillion in new taxes and more money for the IRS to audit individual taxpayers.
“Biden’s bank-breaking proposals are on top of the ‘hidden tax’ of inflation already hitting Americans hard,” RNC spokesman Jake Schneider said. “Biden already broke his promise not to raise taxes, so what’s to stop him from doing it again? — Electing President Trump in November.”
One group of voters under a particularly strong spotlight in Pennsylvania is unionized manufacturing workers, whom Biden and Trump are courting heavily.
This group was key to Trump’s 2016 victory, and he subsequently imposed import tariffs designed to protect sectors like steel manufacturing, of which Pittsburgh is a stronghold. Biden has kept many of those tariffs in place and also touts legislative accomplishments like the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act as a win for these voters.
Trump and Biden both oppose the sale of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel to a Japanese firm, and while Biden has picked up the endorsement of the United Steelworkers, that doesn’t necessarily mean rank-and-file voters will go for him.
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Biden’s campaign points to recent wins by Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) over Trump-backed challengers as evidence that voters aren’t buying his message.
“Republicans have consistently suffered embarrassing losses at the statewide level,” Biden Battleground States Director Dan Kanninen said. “Trump’s MAGA brand has become toxic in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, which are key swing areas to decide any pit Pennsylvania race statewide.”
