Democratic Gains in Congress Could Strengthen US Support for Taiwan, Analysts Say

Democrats’ victories in the U.S. midterm election are expected to increase scrutiny of President Donald Trump while potentially opening the door to additional measures supporting Taiwan’s security, analysts say, but the shift in congressional power is unlikely to fundamentally change Washington’s approach toward Beijing, as strategic competition with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains a bipartisan consensus.

The unofficial election results, which indicate the Democratic Party’s regaining control of both chambers of Congress, mark a significant setback for Trump during his second term, giving Democrats greater influence over legislation and congressional oversight.

The Republican president congratulated Democrats on their victories in an interview late on Nov. 3 and said he would work with the opposition party. He also reminded Democrats that, as president, he retains the power to veto legislation.

Trump acknowledged that the cost of the war with Iran played a role in the Republicans’ performance in the midterms.

Australia-based Feng Chongyi, an associate professor of China Studies at the University of Technology Sydney, told The Epoch Times that the governing party losing seats in midterm elections is historically common in the United States and should not be interpreted as a major political realignment.

He said that some Trump supporters had expected the administration to prioritize domestic issues. However, the Iran war lasted longer than anticipated, contributing to higher oil and consumer prices and increasing pressure on household budgets.

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Congress Could Advance Taiwan Legislation

The change in congressional control has raised questions about whether Washington’s policy toward Taiwan will shift.

Su Tzu-yun, a director at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told The Epoch Times that major policy changes are unlikely in the short term.

Under the Constitution, the executive branch has broad authority over foreign policy. A Democratic majority in Congress therefore would not immediately alter the administration’s defense and diplomatic priorities, Su said.

Over the longer term, he said, Democratic control of Congress could benefit Taiwan by creating opportunities to strengthen its security through legislation.

Su said lawmakers could advance legislation strengthening security guarantees for Taiwan, such as the Six Assurances for Taiwan Act, which would codify Washington’s commitments under the Six Assurances.

Under House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrats could also pursue additional pro-Taiwan legislation covering arms sales and security guarantees, helping establish a stronger institutional foundation for Taiwan’s security, he said.

European credit insurer Credendo also expects U.S. Congress to push forward major arms sales to Taiwan that had previously stalled.

The congressional shift comes as Chinese military forces continue operating around Taiwan.

At the time of midterm elections, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense detected 49 sorties by Chinese military aircraft on Nov. 3, according to Taiwan’s public broadcaster.

Su warned that Taiwan should not assume greater U.S. congressional support would eliminate the security threat from Beijing.

International politics is ultimately driven by interests and practical considerations, he said, making it essential for Taiwan to strengthen its own defense capabilities while it still has time.

Taiwan is also preparing for its local elections. Su contrasted the island’s democratic political process with Beijing’s military pressure, saying: “We are counting votes in our elections, while the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is showing its fists with military aircraft circling Taiwan.”

Bipartisan Consensus on China 

Despite the change in congressional leadership, Feng said Beijing is unlikely to gain significant diplomatic or economic advantages from divisions in Washington.

Feng said strategic competition between the United States and China is structural, rather than simply a product of which party controls Congress.

“America’s dissatisfaction with the CCP and efforts to contain the CCP are a bipartisan consensus,” he said.

The main difference between Republicans and Democrats lies in how they seek to counter Beijing, rather than whether the United States should do so, Feng said.

He added that a Democratic-controlled Congress would not fundamentally change Washington’s strategic position toward China, leaving Chinese leader Xi Jinping with limited opportunities to exploit political divisions in the United States for diplomatic or economic concessions.

Beijing therefore should not assume that a Democratic congressional majority or Republican losses will change how Washington views the CCP, Feng said.

Li Jing and Luo Ya contributed to this report.