Gubernatorial Races to Watch in 2026

While most national attention is focused on the upcoming congressional elections, key races for governors’ mansions are in their final stretch in this year’s top electoral battlegrounds.

Critical races are being held in Texas, Wisconsin, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and other states. While governors’ races tend to be more isolated from national politics, some of the same concerns are emerging at both the state and national levels.

At the state level, voters have been motivated by the same economic concerns and debate over President Donald Trump’s policies that have driven the congressional cycle. Several gubernatorial races have also focused significantly on the growing issue of artificial intelligence data centers, whose energy and water demands have driven widespread opposition from voters on both sides of the aisle.

The races will determine key state-level issues—which bills get priority, which bills are vetoed, and how states respond to federal policy shifts—in ways that will reverberate across national politics for the coming four years and beyond. Here are the races to watch.

Georgia 

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms looks to flip the governor’s mansion to the Democrats, while healthcare CEO Rick Jackson seeks to keep it in Republican hands.

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The winner will succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who was ineligible to run for reelection.

In 2024, Trump won Georgia by about 2.2 percentage points—Republicans’ lowest margins of victory in the Peach State since 1996.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up, reflecting a years-long trend to the left in statewide races, driven by explosive growth in the Atlanta metropolitan area.

The shift was on display in 2020, when Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) won their senatorial races, and in 2022 when Warnock fended off a challenge from Republicans to reclaim the seat.

Democrats have sought to capitalize on their growing strength in gubernatorial elections in recent years. In the previous two elections, Kemp handily defeated state Democratic minority leader Stacey Abrams, but the race remains a high priority.

Georgians last sent a Democrat to the governor’s mansion in 1998.

Texas

Recently, Republicans have faced warning signs in polls out of Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott is facing off against Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative

Abbott leads by just 2.2 percentage points in recent polling of the race.

In the most recent poll of the race by Siena College, however, Hinojosa led at 48 percent to Abbott’s 47 percent.

Abbott has faced criticism for his early support of data centers. Hinojosa has embraced public opposition to data centers in her campaign.

A loss in this race would mark the culmination of a long-standing effort by Democrats to flip the state.

Trump won the state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but other elections have been closer. For example, in 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within 2.6 percentage points of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

The state’s Senate race has also been tight. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee, trails state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat.

The Cook Political Report has downgraded the race from likely Republican to lean Republican, reflecting both the GOP’s advantage in the state and the headway being made by Hinojosa.

Iowa

Democrats are looking to ride the national headwinds all the way to Iowa’s executive mansion for the first time since 2011.

The Republican nominee is farmer and businessman Zach Lahn, a proponent of the Make America Healthy Again movement, running on a promise to fight what he has called a “cancer crisis” in Iowa.

The Democratic nominee, Rob Sand, is the state’s auditor.

The winner will succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who declined to run for a third term.

Iowa had been seen as reliably Republican over the past several cycles; Trump won by margins of double-digit percentage points in 2016 and 2024, and he won by about 9 percentage points in 2020. As recently as 2012, the state drew intense national attention as a battleground, and Iowans backed President Barack Obama in that election.

Sand has led in every poll since June. The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Democratic.

Nevada

In the Silver State, Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican, is up for reelection.

The state was flipped by Trump in the 2024 election for the first time since 2004, when he won by more than 3 points. That came two years after Lombardo, a former sheriff, was first elected in 2022.

Despite the apparent momentum for Republicans, the race is currently rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report.

Lombardo is up against Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford, who has promised affordable housing and to address predatory practices in the healthcare industry.

Lombardo has touted his record as governor during the campaign, referencing his work to expand state savings, cut regulation, and boost employment.

Ohio

Just as Ohio has drawn national attention to its House and Senate races, observers are also paying attention to its gubernatorial race this year.

Like Iowa, Ohio was once a pivotal swing state that veered toward Republicans in recent years.

In 2012, the Buckeye State backed Obama before swinging toward Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024.

Republican entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, one of Trump’s former campaign surrogates, is running against Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director.

Acton currently leads the polls by 3.7 percentage points on average.

Arizona

In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs is fighting for reelection amid a challenge from Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.).

National issues—affordability, the effects of Republican party-line cuts to Medicare and Medicaid, and data centers—are factors in the race.

Meanwhile, local issues related to water access for Phoenix—a rapidly growing metropolis situated in the desert—have also been key in the race.

Hobbs has led Biggs by a double-digit margin in the majority of the polls of the race conducted in 2026, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as likely Democratic.

The once red-leaning state has shifted toward Democrats in recent years, driven heavily by the growth of the Phoenix metropolitan area.

Michigan

Republicans have been looking to take back the Michigan gubernatorial mansion since they lost it to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2018.

Whitmer is ineligible to run for reelection because of term limits.

The Republican nominee, Rep. John James (R-Mich.), has campaigned on implementing a parental bill of rights and enabling school choice.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is the Democrat looking to succeed Whitmer, running on a promise to increase the affordability of housing and goods.

The race is rated by the Cook Political Report as leaning Democratic.

In an average of recent polls, Benson leads by nearly 10 points.

Most national attention has centered on the state’s much closer Senate race between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.).

El-Sayed leads in polling of that race, although his lead in most polling is narrower than Benson’s.

Kansas

Republican Ty Masterson is facing Democrat Cindy Holscher in the closely watched fight for the governor’s mansion of Kansas.

Masterson has been the president of the Kansas Senate since 2021.

Although Kansas has generally backed the Republican Party in national elections, the Cook Political Report downgraded the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up.

Historically, contests have been closer at the state level, such as when Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, won the gubernatorial races in 2018 and 2022.

Dennis, a voter from Overland Park who declined to share his last name, told The Epoch Times that he is a Republican but voted for Democrats in both the Senate and gubernatorial races.

“I’ve been voting Democratic ever since Trump was elected,” Dennis said. “I’m a Bob Dole, Dwight Eisenhower Republican, not a Trumper.”

Wisconsin 

In Wisconsin, Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) faces a tough fight for the governor’s mansion with Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley.

Tiffany easily won the Republican nomination in the primary.

National attention has remained centered on the politically critical swing state, which voted for both Trump and Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in 2024.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning Democrat.

But in an average of four recent polls, Crowley leads Tiffany by more than 5 points.

If he were elected, he would become the first African American governor of the state.

Florida

The Cook Political Report rates Florida’s gubernatorial race as leaning Republican, but it remains competitive.

An NBC6/Telemundo Station Group poll conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 1 showed Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) with 48 percent and Democrat David Jolly with 41 percent. Another 1 percent support an independent candidate, while 10 percent are undecided.

Donalds has been endorsed by Trump.

Jolly is a former Republican member of Congress but received the Democratic nomination after switching parties.

Donalds and Jolly have refused to debate.

In recent polling, Donalds leads by an average of 4.7 points, sitting outside of the standard margin of error (3.5 points). However, Democrats are still hoping for an election night upset.

Alaska

The gubernatorial race in this reliably red state could spell trouble for the GOP.

In the four-way race—a consequence of the state’s ranked-choice voting system—the Democrat is former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, while the Republicans are former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, former Alaska Attorney General Treg Taylor, and small business owner Bernadette Wilson.

Trump has not endorsed a candidate in the race. However, Trump has criticized the fact that there are three Republicans running against one Democrat, risking splitting the vote and handing Kreiss-Tomkins a victory.

The Cook Political Report has rated the race as leaning Democrat.