Current polling shows Nordone in the lead, but she is falling well short of the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Recent surveys put Nordone at roughly 30 percent, with Fry and Norman trailing at 16 percent and 15 percent respectively. Because no candidate is expected to secure an absolute majority, this race will almost certainly advance to a messy primary runoff on August 25.
Wisconsin Gubernatorial Primary (Today, August 11)
Wisconsin is hosting an absolute circus today as voters decide the nominees for the state’s open gubernatorial race to replace retiring Democratic Governor Tony Evers.
The Democratic Socialist Surge
The real fireworks are happening on the Democratic ticket. State Assembly member Francesca Hong, a proud democratic socialist, is currently blowing the doors off the establishment. Backed by the Democratic Socialists of America, Hong has surged to a commanding 25 point polling lead over the rest of the field.
The moderate wing is in absolute chaos trying to stop her. Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley actually dropped out of the race in early July, only to awkwardly jump back in weeks later with Governor Tony Evers’ endorsement after another establishment candidate’s campaign completely imploded. Former administration official Joel Brennan and State Senator Kelda Roys are also scrambling to catch Hong, but the socialist momentum might be too much for the old guard to stop.
The Republican Heavyweight
On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany enters today’s primary as the undisputed heavyweight. Tiffany holds the official “Complete and Total Endorsement” from Donald Trump. This blessing effectively cleared the primary field for him, leaving him to face only minor opposition from Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann.
Minnesota, Connecticut, and Alabama (Today, August 11)
In Minnesota, a highly competitive Democratic primary is unfolding for the Senate seat left open by retiring Senator Tina Smith. Representative Angie Craig is seeking the nomination against Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan in a proxy battle between the centrist and progressive wings of the party.
In Connecticut, incumbent Representative John Larson is facing a four candidate primary challenge in the 1st Congressional District. Meanwhile, Alabama is hosting special primary elections across four redrawn congressional districts, with former Representative Jerry Carl fighting to return to the House in the 1st District.
Strategic Consequences for Republicans and Democrats
For Republicans
The South Carolina special Senate primary is a massive live test of Trump’s endorsement power. If his handpicked candidate struggles to close out the race or gets embarrassed in a runoff, it highlights real vulnerabilities in his influence. Conversely, in Wisconsin, Trump’s early and decisive endorsement of Tom Tiffany proved that his blessing can still successfully clear a field and save donor cash for the general election.
For Democrats
The establishment is officially on notice. The massive surge of Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin proves that the progressive grassroots engine can completely overrun traditional moderate machinery. Combined with the ongoing Senate primary in Minnesota between Craig and Flanagan, today will determine just how far left the Democratic base is willing to push ahead of November.
References & Citations
- Washington Examiner: South Carolina GOP Senate poll (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4680256/south-carolina-gop-senate-poll/)
- CBS News: Wisconsin’s Democratic showdown between Francesca Hong and David Crowley (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-governor-democratic-primary-francesca-hong-david-crowley-minnesota-graham/)
- PBS Wisconsin: Wisconsin’s 2026 primary for governor hits the home stretch (https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/wisconsins-2026-primary-for-governor-hits-the-home-stretch/)
- Wikipedia: 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Wisconsin_gubernatorial_election)
- CBS News: Minnesota’s 2026 primary day is underway (https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/minnesota-2026-primary-day-what-you-need-to-know/)
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